Ness’s Notes (January 20)
Kobe scored 51 points last night in Sacramento (his third 50-plus game this year), but that didn’t stop the Lakers from blowing a five-point lead in the final 35 seconds of regulation. LA lost 118-109 in overtime and plays tonight in Phoenix against the Suns in the second half of ESPN’s NBA doubleheader (10:35 ET). The Spurs visit Miami to take on the Heat at 8:05 ET in the first half of that doubleheader, as these two highlight games highlight a 13-game NBA card for Friday.
My free game for Friday is in the NBA. Catch the Mia Heat over the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. Even though Friday is a HUGE NBA card, I’m only playing ONE game. It’s my Situational Game of the Month. Get it now!
The Spurs own the second-best record in the league at 30-9 and enter having won nine of 11 and SEVEN of their last eight against the Heat, including a 98-84 win at San Antonio on December 12. Shaq had not yet returned for Miami at that time but will be ready tonight, as will Dwayne Wade, who is expected to play despite some ankle issues. Those issues haven’t stopped him from scoring 30 or more points in FOUR of his last five games, though. The Heat are 13-6 since Shaq returned to the lineup, including 5-1 at home (just 3-3 ATS). The Spurs are 11-7 SU and 7-10-1 ATS on the road. The Heat are three-point favorites with a total of 187 1/2.
Phoenix has won all five meetings with the Lakers (averaging 115 PPG) since Shaq left for Miami, after going 8-24 in the Shaq era (averaging 95 PPG). Phoenix remains the highest scoring team in the league this year (105.2 PPG) even with Stoudemire out plus Johnson and Richardson elsewhere. More impressive still, the Suns have cut their defensive average this year by just over four PPG and the team’s plus-6.1 point differential is second only to San Antonio and Detroit. After an 0-3 start at home this season, the Suns are 15-3 SU and 11-7 ATS, but while the Lakers are 11-10 SU on the road, they are 14-7. ATS. Phoenix is an eight-point favorite and the total is 209.
It’s the NFL’s version of the “Final Four” this Sunday, when Pittsburgh takes on Denver in the AFC title game and Carolina is in Seattle for the NFC title game. Denver and Seattle were the only two teams in the league to go through the regular season undefeated at home, and after winning home games last weekend, they can advance to the Super Bowl if they “hold serve” once more. For Carolina or Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl, they would have to join the 1985 New England Patriots, who are the only team to ever reach a Super Bowl by winning three straight road playoff games!
Home teams have gone 46-24 SU and 39-29-2 ATS since the 1970 merger in championship games. However, after going 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS during the 1980s, things have changed since the league moved to a 12-team playoff format in 1990 (any connection?).
In the last 30 championship games, home teams are just 17-13 SU, with visiting teams ‘covering’ 17 of the 30 games, including 11 of the last 16. Since 1970, these title games have not closed. In fact, exactly half (35 of 70) have decided by 14 points or more! All SIX of the games in the last three years have been decided by double digits, as have EIGHT of the last 10!
Since 1990, home teams have won both games four times, but not once since 1996. The visiting teams swept both championship games in both 1992 (Buffalo and Dallas) and 1997 (Denver and Green Bay). Since 1998, the past seven years have seen one road team and one home team advance to the Super Bowl (the ball is in your court!).
In the AFC, Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 seed (since 1990) to advance to a conference title game. The Steelers snapped a streak of 10 straight No. 6 seeds they lost in the divisional round when they beat the Colts last Sunday, so why can’t they win here? Cowher had gone 0-3 in road playoff games before this year, but now he’s won two in a row, so maybe being away for this title game is a good thing?
Especially when you consider that he’s 1-4 in five previous AFC title games (all at home!). However, not only are the Broncos 9-0 at home this year after beating the Patriots, they are 12-2 all-time at home in the playoffs plus 6-1 in seven previous games per game. the AFC title (4-0 at home!). Denver is favored by three points with a total of 41.
In the NFC, Carolina is the No. 5 seed and the Panthers are only the third No. 5 seed (since 1990) to advance to a conference title game (first in the NFC). The previous two No. 5 seeds lost, the Colts 20-16 to the Steelers in 1995 (but covered) and the Jaguars 20-6 to the Patriots in 1996 (did not). Backing the Panthers are Steve Smith (the playoff MVP to this point) and Jake Delhomme (5-1 playoff starter), including FOUR playoff road wins that tied the NFL record (equaling Len Dawson and Roger Staubach).
Seattle is at home, but the Seahawks are playing their second title game in 30 years, while the Panthers are playing their third title game in their 11-year history. Without the AFC’s No. 1 seed (Indy), a Seattle loss would give us just our second Super Bowl since 1990 (and first since 1997), without ONE of the two No. 1 seeds. Seattle is favored 3 1 /2 points with a total of 43 1/2.
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