Ness Notes (January 9)
The NFL expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990. Heading into last year’s wild-card round, home teams had DOMINATED this round of games, winning 42 of the 56 previously played. However, the Colts were the only home team to win in the first round of last year’s postseason, and for the second year in a row, only ONE home team was able to prevail in this year’s wild-card round.
The two-time defending champion New England Patriots beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday night, 28-3. In the other three games, Washington won at Tampa Bay 17-10, Carolina won at New York 23-0 and Pittsburgh won at Cincinnati 31-17. The Redskins won despite gaining only 120 yards, the fewest yards by a playoff winner in NFL history. Carolina gave the Giants the team’s first playoff shutout in 20 years and the Giants became the first team to be shut out in a playoff game at home since the Rams beat the Bucs 9-0 in Tampa, in the 1979 NFC Championship Game (played in January 1980).
My bye game tonight is with the Toronto Raptors over the Chicago Bulls (see reference below). In college hoops, I am submitting a rare triple 10* report (most recent was a winner on 12/21). Don’t miss out on this combination of QUALITY and QUANTITY that I believe is the “best value in the industry!”
Heading into the weekend’s action, the home favorites were 28-23-3 ATS in the wild card round with the home ‘dogs’ going 5-1 ATS (since 1990). Last weekend’s results saw the local favorites go 1-2 ATS and the only local dog (Flares), also lost. The home dogs had been 8-1 ATS in wild-card history (starting in 1978), but following a season-long trend that has seen the road favorites cash 62.3 percent of the time, the Steelers won and ‘covered’ as a three point path. whiteboard’.
Of course, it’s hard NOT to speculate “what might have been,” if Carson Palmer hadn’t lost the game on his first pass attempt. Three of the four games this weekend were ‘under’ the total. All four losing teams had quarterbacks who made their first postseason starts and that may be worth watching when Chicago (Rex Grossman makes his first playoff start) hosts Carolina next Sunday (pun intended!).
Speaking of next weekend’s games, all four matchups involve teams that played each other during this year’s regular season. Washington is in Seattle (the Seahawks are nine-point favorites with a total of 41) and New England is in Denver (the Broncos are three-point favorites with a total of 43 1/2) on Saturday. Sunday’s games feature Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (Colts are 9 1/2-point favorites with 47 1/2 total) and Carolina at Chicago (Bears are 3-point favorites with 30 1/2 total) .
Tonight’s sports schedule features a five-game NBA card, a four-game NHL slate and 15 games in college hoops. While not a featured game, Toronto in Chicago offers an interesting story. The Bulls will be looking for their 11th straight victory over the Raptors. Before winning 10 in a row over Toronto, Chicago had lost 16 in a row to the Raptors. Before Toronto’s 16-game win streak over the Bulls, Chicago had won EIGHT in a row over the Raptors (still confused?). Going into tonight’s game, Chicago is a 5 1/2-point favorite (surprisingly, the Bulls have been favorites in only three of their previous 10 wins!) with a total of 202 1/2.
In college basketball, it’s “Big Monday.” ESPN starts with Cincinnati at U Conn at 7:00 ET (the Huskies are 7 1/2 favorites with a total of 156 1/2) and then it’s Texas at Iowa State at 9:00 ET (the Longhorns are the favorites by 4 1/2 2 with a total of 144 1/2). At midnight ET, ESPN2 takes Gonzaga to Santa Clara (the Bulldogs are 8 1/2 favorites with a total of 143).
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