NFL preseason: patience and objectivity
I’m not one to look at negative trends, but what do we find after the first two weeks of the NFL preseason? Games have gone under total by a whopping 20-11-1! It’s been a low paradise so far. However, before we skip all the lows this weekend, keep in mind that the lows were 12-4-1 the first week, but only 8-7 in Week 2.
Suddenly those basses aren’t quite as sizzling. Part of what is happening is that punters are adjusting. The Detroit Lions have new offensive schemes, with new quarterbacks and a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz. Martz brings a more vertical passing attack to the table, unlike last season’s dull (and unproductive West Coast offense). The Lions’ total was 37 1/2 in Week 1, but it was 33 in Week 2. They sailed under the total in a 20-13 win in Game 1, but slipped over the weekend. passed in a 20-16 victory. That’s just 3 more points scored in their games, but it was enough to top the total through adjustment.
Another thing that’s happening is that defenses are really ahead of offenses at this time of the season. Offenses take a long time to consolidate, with quarterbacks learning their receivers’ timing patterns, offensive linemen learning their blocking assignments and everyone learning new plays. Some teams are learning new playbooks as there are 10 new head coaches in the NFL.
Scoring increased in Week 2. It will be interesting to see what happens this week, as teams in Week 3 of the preseason give their starters the most training. In general, having the offense longer helps the offense develop more than having defensive starters on the field longer.
For perspective, a year ago, the backups led 9-7 in Week 1 of the NFL preseason and then tied it at 8-8 in Week 2. In Week 3, with the starters playing more, the backups still they ruled 10-6, while in Week 4 the overs recovered 10-6. Beginners don’t play much in week 4. That’s why following trends and patterns can be difficult and sometimes even confusing. It is best to be patient and use harmful objectivity.
It is more important to look at each individual team. For example, the Cleveland Browns have a lot of problems on offense, with a trio of young quarterbacks and serious injuries on the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins have given up a ton of passing yards in two preseason games and note they have injury problems in the secondary. Rookie Jason Allen split time between safety and cornerback last week when coach Nick Saban said, “Because we don’t have any cornerbacks left!”
The Redskins are 0-2 SU/ATS in the preseason. Joe Gibbs was upset at a postgame news conference after losing to the Jets. “I’m worried about the team,” Gibbs said. “You have to play well as a team, and we don’t. I couldn’t point to anything positive.” Washington also has a new offensive system brought in by Al Saunders from Kansas City. Saunders’ plays have been conservative and his unit execution has been inconsistent. Pieces like that are much more important in finding betting angles than any betting trends.
